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Watch These Value Names for a Bounce

This Site:en.yinlu.net Source:en.yinlu.net Writer: Time:2007-11-16
I want to take a look at an area of the market that looks extended to the downside and is possibly due for a bounce. While I was doing my scans over the weekend, I noticed that many of the value stocks that have been in a corrective phase over the past few weeks are hitting substantial support levels. That doesn't mean that they can't break those levels and move lower, but technically they are due for at least some upside testing.

The wild ride in the market continues, as subprime worries stay at the forefront of the market and new stories of major problems continue to emerge. Today, investors were again hit with major problems at discount brokerage E*Trade .

I've said before that no one knows how deep this subprime and derivative situation really goes and that I would avoid this area of the market completely. Today we are seeing rotation into the financials, retailers and homebuilders and out of commodities.

Investors need to view this rotation into the above areas as an oversold bounce in a bear market for these sectors. These areas of the market have been very oversold, and a bounce here is quite logical.

With the sharp drop in commodities, it is amazing how many commentators have been quick to call a major top in this area. Commodities are on the other side of the coin in that they were very overextended and due for a sharp pullback. In fact, I stated last week that a likely dollar bounce would hit the commodity stocks.

I said in that column that there were too many analysts and commentators coming out of the woodwork to predict the dollar's demise at the same time it was hitting the lower level of its trend channel and was very oversold and extended to the downside. I also showed that the CRB index was at the upper part of its trend channel and was due for a correction.

Today, we are seeing that exact scenario developing in the market, and I am not sure that I agree with the talk that this is a top in the commodity and oil sector. In fact, as I said in my earlier column, I believe the corrective action could lead to some very good buying opportunities in this area of the market.

Let's take a look at some names that could bounce soon.

The iShares Morningstar Large Value ETF is sitting right at 52-week lows and a solid support level. You can see from the chart below that the price as tested the support level three times over the last year. This ETF has corrected more than 9% since its October highs and is certainly due for a bounce in some upside testing.




I've been talking negatively about the small-cap area of the market for quite some time, and as long as those stocks continue to lag the overall market, I believe the intermediate-term trend is still down. However, the iShares Morningstar Small Value ETF is testing a pretty good support level, and that could provide a bounce up to at least the 200-day moving average.




The iShares Russell Midcap Value ETF is also sitting on recent support levels. There are two patterns they could develop here. It is likely that we will see some type of oversold bounce from this area, but we could be seeing a long-term head-and-shoulders top developing here. In order for that top to be confirmed, we would need to see a high-volume drop below the support.




For all of the investors out there who depend on dividends from stocks, you could be in for a little bit of a reprieve, as the iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend ETF looks like it may have put in a short-term double bottom. It is possible that we can see a short-term bounce up to the $68-$70 level. However, this index will not be out of the woods until it breaks above $72.




The value area of the market looks like it is technically ready to provide investors with a short-term bounce. However, there is a lot of overhead resistance that these indices will need to work through before the intermediate term downtrend can be classified as over. If the current support levels are broken on heavy volume, it may be a signal that investors are going to have to endure a longer-term correction.

Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider iShares Morningstar Large Value and iShares Morningstar Small Value to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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