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Five Maverick Long-Side Bets

This Site:en.yinlu.net Source:en.yinlu.net Writer: Time:2007-11-21
My short-side list has been growing rapidly in November's market malaise. But I haven't given up completely on the long side. In fact, there are two excellent buying strategies that still show managed risk and adequate reward, despite the persistent wave of selling pressure.

First, apply Doug Kass' methodology of "sell the rips, buy the dips." Of course, this isn't a new way of trading. It just means that buying pullbacks and selling rallies is a good way to profit when the market chops around in unsettled conditions.

Second, find exceptionally strong issues that are moving higher against broad weakness.

This second approach can be especially rewarding, because an outlandishly firm bid may reflect insider news that's overcoming institutional selling programs. Notably, both Cognos and Pharmion traded much stronger than the broad market in the days leading up to their recent acquisitions by Fortune 500 companies.

Of course, not every strong stock in a weak market is a takeout waiting to happen. More often, they're just small-caps with outstanding growth prospects or a bullish story that's keeping short-sellers on the defensive. In both cases, they let traders find relatively safe locations to park their capital while the rest of the market goes bonkers.

Here are five maverick stocks that don't seem to care what's happening with the financials, chips or other beaten-down corners of this tired market.


Solar stocks got knocked back to earth in the last few weeks, but Canadian Solar ignored the downward pressure and soared to an all-time high. Notably it traded through its 2006 IPO price at $15 after posting strong earnings last week. This is triggering a fresh set of buy signals, despite the vertical run.

Realistically, the stock is due for a rest since running up almost 50% in just three sessions. Look for the pullback that began on Monday to last a week or two and hold above support near $14. A basing pattern at that price level would set the stage for a follow-through rally that carries the stock into the $20s before year's end.


LKQ is an aftermarket auto parts supplier that split 2 for 1 after Friday's session. The stock has doubled in price since it entered a strong rally at the start of 2007. The latest leg of the uptrend carried to $41.79, where price topped out in late October. It's been pulling back in an orderly pattern since that time.

The stock pivoted to a three-week low on Monday and is dropping into support at the 50-day moving average and October breakout. This should offer an aggressive entry point for a run back through the high posted last month. More conservative players should wait until price trades back above the red line, which marks a broken support level.


Ctrip.com is a Chinese version of Expedia, selling airline, hotel and vacation packages in the fastest-growing economy on earth. The stock has been moving higher in a steady uptrend since it came public in 2004. Notably, it shows just a fraction of the selling pressure that hit other China plays in October.

The stock posted its last major high almost two weeks ago and has been moving sideways since that time in a volatile pattern. I suspect the upside won't develop again until there's a good shakeout that drops price into the trendline I've drawn, connecting the last two major lows. So let's sit back and wait for a good trade entry in the mid-$50s.


I highlighted FTI Consulting in August as a safe play during the summer's stormy market. Guess what? The stock is still moving higher in a graceful pattern that shows little or no selling pressure. It just broke out to a new high late last week, when it pressed into the options strike at $60 on the last day of expiration.

Note the four-month rising parallel channel, with support at $52 and resistance at $59. The rally posted a bullish channel break that signals acceleration of the uptrend. This creates a favorable reward-to-risk scenario, because stop losses can be placed just below new support, in anticipation of a run into the mid-$60s.


You might recall Dynamic Materials as one of the hottest stocks of 2005. The momentum favorite faded out of view after it peaked at $43.20 in early 2006 and entered a long correction. The stock rallied back to this resistance level in September and broke out to a new high. The chart shows two volatile buying surges since that time.

The intense day-to-day volatility adds considerable risk to this setup, but it might be worth your effort. The stock is now trading just 4 points off the high and could mount that key level at any time. A pullback to short-term support near $50 or a run above $55 -- both would look like good places to get on board.


Please note that due to factors including low market capitalization and/or insufficient public float, we consider Canadian Solar to be a small-cap stock. You should be aware that such stocks are subject to more risk than stocks of larger companies, including greater volatility, lower liquidity and less publicly available information, and that postings such as this one can have an effect on their stock prices.

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