Cable Crosses Plummet

GBPJPY

GBPCHF

GBPAUD

Commentary – The GBPJPY structure from 251.10 is part of a big correction.  We know this because of all the 3 wave movements.  One possibility is that we are in a big A-B-C and that wave C is underway now.  Wave C would equal A at 209.56 but coming under 219.30 satisfies minimum expectations.  If the decline from 241.35 is wave 1 of C then wave 2 of C could be over at 232.38, although it is also possible for a more complex 2nd wave to unfold.  Resistance for those wishing to get short is at 227.69 and 229.60.      

Strategy – Flat

Commentary – The longer term C wave is well underway as the GBPCHF has plummeted.  In fact, wave 3 (iii) of C is likely close to complete and wave iv (a correction) should unfold soon and bring price back close to 2.3397 before a new low is made in wave 5.  We expect wave 5 to end near 2.2650, which is the center of the large triangle from 2006.   

Strategy – Get bearish near 2.3350, target 2.2700 (risk is not clearly defined)

Commentary – In this daily chart, you can see the clear 5 wave decline from 2.5638 to 2.2184.  The rally from 2.2184 stopped and reversed at the 38.2% of that decline at 2.3500, arguing that the next leg lower is underway.  However, a larger more complex correction could also be in the works.  In this case, price is likely to test the 61.8% at 2.4316. 

Strategy – Flat