Layoffs Dip, Good Sign for Labor Market

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 11,000 to 330,000 for the week ending Nov. 17. It was the lowest level since the beginning of November. The 330,000 level of claims was in line with economists' forecasts.

A year ago, new claims for unemployment insurance stood at 322,000.

The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, dipped last week to 329,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week. It marked the lowest level since late October. A year ago, the four-week average of claims was 319,500.

The number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits, however, rose by 7,000 to 2.57 million for the week ending Nov. 10, the most recent period for which that information is available. A year ago, continuing claims stood at 2.43 million.

The state of the nation's employment climate is a crucial factor in determining whether the economy will, in fact, weather the stresses from the housing slump and credit crunch.

So far, decent job creation and wage growth have helped to offset some of the negative forces hitting some people, problems ranging from weaker home values to hard-to-get credit.

The national civilian unemployment rate -- now at 4.7 percent of the labor force -- is considered low by historical standards. The jobless rate is expected to slowly climb in the coming months as the economy loses steam.

Even though the labor market has so far been holding up fairly well to stresses in the economy, job losses have been painfully felt in construction, manufacturing, mortgage banking and other businesses more closely linked to the troubled housing and credit sectors.

The economy, which grew at a brisk 3.9 percent pace in the third quarter, is expected to log growth at only half that rate or less in the final three months of this year, analysts say.

The Federal Reserve, in the first of new quarterly reports to the nation, said that it believes the unemployment rate will rise to between 4.8 percent and 4.9 percent next year. For all of last year, the jobless rate dipped to 4.6 percent, a six-year low.

The Fed said the "unemployment rate would increase modestly" in 2008, stabilize in 2009 and then decline slightly in 2010.